Sazerac

Hope everybody is OK and Matthew goes quickly away. Here is the latest from the Hurricane Center 000 WTNT44 KNHC 081500 TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 Aircraft reconnaissance and land-based radar data indicate that the center of circulation has crossed the coast of South Carolina near the Cape Romain National Wildlife Refuge. The cloud pattern associated with Matthew is beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The wind field is expanding, and the area of heavy rains is now northwest of the center. Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft around 1200 UTC indicated that the surface winds have decreased to around 65 kt. (Very recent SFMR winds of 78 kt were taken over shallow water where the instrument is affected by shoaling and provides unreliable output). Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the new NHC forecast calls for Matthew to become absorbed within this frontal system within the next couple of days. During the next 12 to 24 hours, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area. Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and is moving toward the northeast or 050 degrees at 10 kt. The steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, and on this basis the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward until it becomes absorbed. Previous NHC official forecasts followed the EMCWF in keeping the cyclone a distinct entity longer and looping it southward, but even if this the case the system will likely be only a broad area of low pressure. Due to the degradation of Matthew's radar signature, the hourly Tropical Cyclone Updates will not longer be issued. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the coastline, and has also increased the threat of storm surge in portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.0N 79.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 33.6N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 34.0N 75.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 34.0N 73.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z 33.0N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

Twenty days for you, Tiff. Hope you have some Joy planned for the weekend and lavish rewards because 20 days is a true accomplishment. Please know that while I may not agree with some of your means and ways, this in no way affects my steadfast support. I sincerely want you to be free from the slavery of smoking Forever. You are a smart chick and a stubborn one, both of those attributes will serve you well in defeating your addiction. So, breathe deep luscious breaths of your freedom and hold tight to your resolve, you are winning. s

-11

N O P E

Now, it is pushing an awful lot of water into NFLA/GA/SCarolina. How is DDoll in Savannah ? :(

-8 ta :D

I am sorta kinda reassured to hear this statement about you and your addiction. The Forever part only means that for the rest of your life, should you ever take a puff from a cigarette, the addiction is re-activated. You've seen the brain pictures. That is why I consider myself an addict forever because the addiction doesn't go away, it is now in my DNA fgs. But, I choose to not ignite it. Soon, you won't be thinking about smoking/not smoking every day.

-6 hello Doreen. looks nice and calm in here today, lovely time for tea ?

when you said that you used a lot of sugar when you smoked and it is a link, I thought, oh dear that sucks, sugar is a poison, nicotine is a poison. to have both of those urges yelling at you at the same time would suck. NOPE NOPE NOPE NOPE distract yourself and power through. never be sorry for posting an SOS, Ev. This is what helps us keep our Freedom.

I don't think this has anything to do with shame. There is nothing shameful about Truth. I was not shamed when I listened to Joel or read anything about addiction. I didn't feel shame when I copped to being an Addict. I felt Empowered. That was the beginning of a path of Truthful self-discovery for me. The shame was that I gloried in Denial for so long but, Denial is an integral part of Nicotine Addiction, any addiction. Your denial about addiction astounds me, Tiffany. Perhaps you are that one in a kazillion that can hold tight to their denial about addiction and have a successful quit. Still, giving denial that much power doesn't sound very free to me when the truth is so much more rewarding.

-4

wow. sugar as a trigger. nothing like two poisons clawing for your attention !

YOU --> QUIT --> LIFE. Cristobal go put on a record and bop til ya drop

N O P E

Bump with three of Joel's talks Are You A Nicotine Junkie Were You Addicted ? I Can't Quit because I'm Addicted When I came to terms with my addiction and faced my denial, I was able to see and hear the addict's voice within myself and defy it. This action, of facing the truth, brought a deep level of honesty to my relationship with myself and one that continues to enrich my life.

This is such encouraging news, Ruby ! I am so happy for you ! and what a glamorous quit you are having ! New eyeshadow and now, new lipstick ? Damn ! Perfect rewards for a new YOU. :D

Me too. EVER. FOREVER. p.s. I don't know if these will help but, they helped me Are You A Nicotine Junkie ? Was I addicted ? and don't let this last title I found throw you off because it has some pertinent bits, too. I Can't Quit because I'm addicted All from our friend, Joel.

Quite right ! It's the Lanolin, innit ?

-6 I'll try to pay better attention today, Boo. :D

These are interesting issues, Tiffany, and I can see why you won't admit to being an addict. I had a lot of the same arguments and many people here likely said the same things to themselves too. Now, in my 20/20 hindsight, I see clearly how my Denial made my quit a helluva lot harder than it had to be. This lesson has helped me look deeper inside and root out other denial hot spots. I have learned a lot and begun to disentangle the myth from the woman in true honesty with myself. There are many paths, Tiffany. You may change and learn to accept yourself as an addict but, it is really only semantics as long as you decide to stop administering the addictive drug. Keep Protecting your quit and holding your resolve. You are 18 Days into your nicotine Free Life and that is spectacular.

When I read, ' you don't want to be here' I didn't take that personally but, I went out on a limb and interpreted that as, "I don't want to be an addict" "I don't want to be told I am an addict or behaving like an addict" "I don't want to admit to being an addict" and I thought, well gee, Tiff. None of us want to be addicts but, the sorry fact is, we are. Admitting to addiction was a big one for me so, I could well be projecting but Commitment !? Commitment, I thought was impossible for myself. I was wrong. Commitment to NOPE has brought me nothing but power and helped me to understand the benefits of commitments. Your life has changed so much in the past few weeks, Tiffany. and please remember that it just gets better.

Beware of chapped thighs. That is, unless you are wearing trousers. :P

-5

-3